GLOBAL SMARTPHONE MARKET 2019–2029: REVENUE DYNAMICS, VOLATILITY DRIVERS AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31379/sed.1.4.2025.33Keywords:
smartphone market, consumer electronics, mobile devices, industry revenue, CAGR, market volatility, premiumisation, market saturation, forecast modellingAbstract
This article presents a comprehensive analysis of global smartphone market dynamics for the period 2019–2029, based on data from Statista Consumer Market Insights (June 2024). Industry revenues are projected to grow from USD 453.70 billion in 2019 to USD 562.56 billion in 2029, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.17% over the full ten-year period and 3.77% during the forecast period 2024–2029. A key structural feature identified is the high volatility during 2019–2024, when years of decline (2020: −6.64%; 2022: −5.68%; 2024: −2.39%) alternated with years of growth, while the forecast period 2025–2029 anticipates stabilisation within a narrow range of 3.65–3.90%. The causes of volatility are systematised: the pandemic shock of 2020, pent-up demand and shifts in consumer behaviour in 2021, the inflationary correction of 2022, and market saturation in developed economies combined with premiumisation pressure in 2023–2024. Baseline, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for industry development to 2029 are formulated.
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